Solar panel maker ARTsolar has filed a petition with the International Trade Administration Commission of South Africa , seeking customs tariffs on all imported crystalline silicon PV panels.
In the document, submitted at the end of March, the manufacturer complained there was no protection for module manufacturers in the country, as existed in the U.S. Europe, although in the latter case trade measures were lifted last year.
“A number of photovoltaic module/panel manufacturers had ceased their production operations in the SACU region due to high competition from low-priced imports,” the petitioner wrote, in reference to the Southern African Customs Union area which also includes Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia Eswatini.
Pegg, CEO of the SegenSolar (Pty) Ltd South African subsidiary of U.K. solar distributor Segen Ltd, said the introduction of import tariffs could see the price of PV modules rise by 10% overnight in South Africa. “The 10% tariff will, ultimately, be passed down to the customer or installer in the form of increased product prices – which could see dem plummet profit margins squeezed, particularly for smaller distributors,” he told pv magazine.
Pegg added, the major problem with tariffs in South Africa would be the lack of government support for the sector. For tariffs to be effective, he said, the policy regulatory environment must support the growth supply of the renewables sector. “For example, China has seen explosive growth in solar PV power generation due to continually adjusting its solar energy targets upward in line with dem – which increased from 10% in 2012 to 55% in 2017,” he said.
It’s all about Eskom
Pegg also highlighted the operational financial problems of state-owned utility Eskomas a hicap to the country’s energy sector. Last month, Eskom required an emergency $355 million bailout to prevent a debt default when it was already struggling to fix crippling power shortages. Media reports claimed the utility also failed to receive ZAR7 billion ($485 million) in loan payments from the Chinese Development Bank this month.
“It seems more likely the proposed import tariffs would make it explicitly easier for the state-owned Eskom to keep its monopoly on energy supply in South Africa,” Pegg said.
Chris Ahlfeldt, energy specialist at Blue Horizon Energy Consulting Services, said tariffs would probably have a net negative impact on jobs for the domestic solar industry, adding they would slow down customer adoption through higher prices. “Solar PV installers create many more local jobs than the manufacturing industry globally, so the focus should be on accelerating growth in the industry as a whole to create jobs not slowing it down with tariffs,” he said to pv magazine.
‘Incentives, not penalties’
According to Ahlfeldt, the best way to incentivize localization of industry is by creating stable dem. Rather than introducing tariffs, he said, the government should focus on enabling regulations for the industry more regular procurement for utility scale projects. “South Africa’s REIPPPP [Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Program] already has localization requirements but delays in the program contributed to closure of most of the local module assembly capacity over the past few years, from companies like Solairedirect, SunPower Jinko Solar,” he said.
Alfehldt added South Africa is part of the World Trade Organization, so new tariffs could result in trade law violations as they have in other countries.
The South African government was expected to launch a new 1.8 GW REIPPP round last yearbut Eskom’s troubles may have stymied that plan. Early this year, president Cyril Ramaphosa announced a plan to rescue Eskom by splitting it into three units. Consultants Frost & Sullivan said that move could encourage renewables even if it is not enough to fully address the utility’s financial crisis.
Eskom’s debt pile stood at around ZAR419.2 billion at the end of September, according to its financial results. The utility is the only buyer of the power generated under the REIPPP its lack of funds pushed it to delay the signing of several PPAs awarded in rounds 3.5 four of the program.
“The energy storage system can regulate the frequency of the electricity market,” said Garth Heron, Australian Development Director of Neoen SA, owner of the battery energy storage system, at a press conference in Sydney.
In places like South Australia, the energy storage industry is becoming more and more important as fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas in the region generate less electricity. Australian energy market operator AEMO said in an e-mail that the Hornsdale energy storage system plays an important role in providing frequency control services, and the speed and accuracy of its response to system events is encouraging.
Solar power generation is one of the main ways in which household users use renewable energy. According to the Solar Energy Industry Association, the total US solar power generation capacity reached 53.3 GW in 2017, enough to power more than 10 million homes. And a 30% solar tax credit policy is still in place.
Industry consultant Aurecon Group said that after the grid connector between Queensland and New South Wales was shut down in August this year, the Hornsdale battery energy storage system responded within 100 milliseconds, providing electricity and stabilizing grid operations. , its control response time can be as long as 6 seconds.
The factory signed a supply contract with the South Australian government in the first half of 2018 and independently sold the stored electricity, earning 8.1 million euros ($9.2 million) in revenue for Neoen and recovering an investment of 56 million euros. Part of the cost. According to Bloomberg NEF's survey data, it also reduced the cost of grid-assisted services by nearly 75%.
A big problem facing the renewable energy industry is whether battery energy storage systems can extend the power of the base load as fossil fuels dominate the power structure.
Neoen's Heron said that the battery energy storage system can be expanded, and the company plans to add at least two battery energy storage projects in Australia. Liberty House CEO Sanjeev Gupta plans to build a 120MW energy storage system in South Australia and hopes to exceed the Hornsdale battery energy storage system.
But not everyone believes in the value of battery storage. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison said the energy storage project does not solve Australia's energy problems.
Tom Howell, CEO of Tomago Aluminium, said that the Hosdale battery energy storage system's smelter power supply can only provide electricity in less than 8 minutes.
Andrew McKenna, senior policy adviser at Business SA, said that local companies' attitudes are generally positive, but they also have some doubts about their true capabilities. When homes and businesses turn on air conditioning and cooling systems, the state has not experienced a long-term test that truly tests the limits of battery energy storage systems.
Despite this, Tesla's battery energy storage system will not be a versatile solution to the state's power problems, but the energy storage system's potential contribution to the grid is strongly supported.
Ali Asghar, an analyst at Bloomberg NEF, said, “The project raises people's understanding of the revenue streams and returns of energy storage projects and indirectly reduces the risk of future energy storage investments.” Operation of the Hornsdale Energy Storage System Since then, the Australian public and private sector has deployed approximately 2,500 MWh of energy storage projects.
On November 22nd, the “2018 China PV Industry Annual Conference and Smart Energy Innovation Forum” hosted by China Photovoltaic Industry Association was held in Hefei. The theme of the conference was “New Situation, New Action”, which aims to study the background of energy reform. The direction and path of sustainable innovation and development of the photovoltaic industry. The conference has carried out various topics on China's PV industry, PV prospects under the energy transformation, PV export situation in the context of Sino-US “trade” disputes, future PV industry development pattern, PV power generation technology, PV+ energy storage, and smart energy. discuss in depth.
Director of Trade Relief Investigation Bureau of the Ministry of Commerce YU BEN LIN
Deputy Director, Department of Electronic Information, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology
In 2017, the photovoltaic industry in Hefei achieved an output value of 42.5 billion yuan, which is in the forefront of the national cities. So far, the city has built and connected to the grid to generate more than 18,000 types of photovoltaic power generation systems, with an installed capacity of 2.2GW, ranking the forefront of the provincial capital cities. In the future, Hefei will continue to build the first city of China's photovoltaic industry, and continue to promote the development and transformation of the photovoltaic industry in the city, and contribute to the construction of ecological civilization.
Vice Chairman and Secretary General of China Photovoltaic Industry Association WANG BOHUA
Wang Bohua introduced that from January to October, domestic silicon wafer production was 77.8GW, battery production was 60.5GW, and module output was 63.7GW. The capacity utilization rate of large-volume enterprises remained above 70%, and many small-volume enterprises Capacity utilization has been below 50%. According to data released by the Energy Bureau, from January to October, China's new PV installed capacity is about 36GW, with a cumulative total of more than 116GW.
Wang Bohua is optimistic about the global prospects of the photovoltaic industry. He made a simple analysis of the future of the photovoltaic market. First, the industry should continue to have confidence in the domestic market. Secondly, the photovoltaic industry is a global manufacturing industry, based on the global market. Consider the problem; in the end, the photovoltaic industry still needs to innovate, to reduce costs, improve quality, and increase efficiency. Wang Bohua believes that the photovoltaic industry is still in the process of rapid cost reduction. According to his estimation, the cost may fall by 30% from 2018 to 2022.
Former Director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission
According to Han Wenke, in the "2030" year and in achieving the goal of "energy revolution", photovoltaics will replace some of the nuclear power and become the first main force of clean energy, becoming an industry connecting the supply side and the consumption side.
Vice President of China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products WANG GUI QING
In the dialogue between the leaders of the photovoltaic industry, the former State Council’s former director Shi Dingxi, Trina Solar Chairman Gao Jiyao, SUNGROW Group Chairman Cao Renxian, LONGi Chairman Chairman Zhong Baoshen, Zhengtai New Energy Chairman Qiu Zhanqi, Three Gorges New Energy Chairman Li Bin, Artes COO Zhang Guangchun, Vice President Hu Jinzhu of Tongwei Group and Yu Qiaoqi, Vice President of Jingko Solar, discussed issues such as national policy, affordable Internet access and corporate development.
In Gao Jifan's view, this year's PV industry has experienced another internal and external problem, but in the medium and long term, changes in external policies will not necessarily have an essential impact on the photovoltaic industry. He believes that the current scale of the photovoltaic industry is indeed increasing, but the rapid decline in the price of photovoltaic products, resulting in no increase in total sales. However, in the past decade, the annual investment of PV companies has been increasing, and the proportion of input and output in the industry is getting lower and lower. The past two decades have been a process in which the industry has reduced costs through technological innovation, policy support, and continuous investment in scale. However, the high-quality development model creates more value with less resources input, and the current development mode of the industry has not undergone qualitative changes. Gao Jifan said that in order to move toward more influential and higher quality development, in addition to continuing to reduce costs and increase efficiency and expand scale, it is more important to complete the transition from energy characteristics to feeling characteristics. Different, users are willing to pay for the experience, then PV can become an industrial form based on photovoltaics beyond photovoltaics.
Yu Qiaoqi said that because PV companies are highly dependent on policies, the ups and downs of the industry are closely related to policies. Under the current situation, the entire industry should work together to tide over the difficulties. After “531”, the sharp drop in the price of upstream components accelerated the parity of the Internet. From the auction results of the third batch of runners, the price of the fourth batch of runners tends to be cheaper. In her view, the photovoltaic industry wants to go well. The “last mile” before the parity Internet access is mainly at three points, subsidies, non-technical costs, and scale. Yu Qiaoqi said that a large number of stock projects are not included in the catalogue, and the delay in subsidies affects the cash flow of enterprises. Technology costs are already low, and non-technical costs depend on local government and grid support. A certain scale can support enterprises to improve their technical level. If there is a need to choose between subsidies and scales, PV companies will choose to reduce their subsidies to increase their scale.
In the photovoltaic industry expert forum, Zhao Yuwen, vice chairman of China Renewable Energy Society, Yu Zhenhua, chairman of Zhongguancun Energy Storage Alliance, Shen Hui, professor of Sun Yat-sen University, Wang Shijiang, deputy secretary general of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, and Liu Rui, general manager of Zhenheng Certified Photovoltaic Business Unit Chen Junying, an analyst of Jibang New Energy EnergyTrend, conducted in-depth discussions and sharing on issues such as subsidy dependence, photovoltaic + energy storage, trade barriers, household distributed standard system, and future efficient technology development.
Deputy Director, Renewable Energy Development Center, Energy Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission TAO YE
In order to reduce the demand for the subsidy process, the focus of next year's work will be on the adjustment of electricity prices, the adjustment of large-scale project management, the Internet side parity project, the quota system, and the green card trading mechanism. The focus of the work in the early period of the "14th Five-Year Plan" will be in the promotion of unsubsidized projects and the improvement of the quota system.
Tao Ye said that the difference between planning objectives and market expectations should be correctly understood. The planning objectives are not strongly constrained by the market. The planning objectives are guiding targets. From the actual results, the “13th Five-Year Plan” of PV must be adjusted.
In the non-fossil energy proportion target, the total energy consumption in 2030 will be controlled within 6 billion tons of standard coal, and non-fossil energy accounts for about 20% of total energy consumption. According to the latest newly installed data, 35.78GW of new installed capacity was added in January-October, accounting for 42.5% of all new power capacity. In terms of subsidies, the current subsidy funding source is only 1.9 points/kWh of renewable energy tariffs. By 2017, the cumulative subsidy gap will reach 120 billion yuan. Under the existing price-added level, the cumulative subsidy gap will reach 4000 by 2021. About 100 million yuan. So how to solve it? Tao Ye believes that an appropriate increase in the additional level of electricity prices will effectively reduce the cumulative subsidy gap. Under the conditions of wind power and photovoltaics to achieve Internet side parity in 2021, it is expected to achieve the balance of payments in the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the accumulated subsidy funding gap is expected to pass. We will expand the scale of the “green card” transaction that is linked to the quota system.
Regarding the issue of parity, Tao Ye believes that the price should be treated rationally, the subsidy problem will not be dissipated naturally, and the scale of new construction will not be “open”. The renewable energy source cannot compete with the traditional power value competition in the electricity market. After the power technology is flat and the stage goal of parity is achieved, macro policy support is still needed.
Regarding the quota system, the goal is to solve the problem of consumption. The difference between the third edition and the second edition mainly includes the following aspects: the second edition proposes the minimum constraint indicator, and the third edition proposes that more than 10% of the constraint indicator is used as the incentive indicator, and the renewable energy consumption exceeding the quota component is not In the second edition, the compensation will be paid as the bottom policy. In the third edition, the credit market system of the power market is proposed, which is included in the bad credit record of the main body of the power market for joint punishment; the second edition is the green certificate transaction. In the third edition, market-oriented transactions were proposed, and the amount of quota excess was purchased from the market entity that exceeded the quota. The two parties independently determined the transfer price and voluntarily subscribed for the green certificate.
President of Tongwei's Photovoltaic Business Unit CHEN XINGYU
Chen Xingyu believes that the energy revolution is the consensus of the whole industry and the whole society. The energy consumption structure based on coal and oil is undoubtedly the main reason for the formation of smog. The energy revolution needs further deepening.
Chen Xingyu said that the current energy consumption for the entire process of manufacturing photovoltaic power generation systems can be fully recovered six to nine months after the completion of the power station. Within three years, system costs can be reduced by 20% or even more than 30%. Tongwei has the development of dual main industries of clean energy and aquatic products. At present, Tongwei aquatic feed accounts for 20% of the national market. In the field of new energy, Tongwei is integrated from polysilicon to battery chips, components and downstream fishing lights. Yongxiang Polysilicon, Tongwei Solar, Tongwei New Energy-based enterprises have formed an industrial chain.
Chen Xingyu introduced that Tongwei has set a strategy for 543 on the surface power station. By the end of 2018, all power stations in Tongwei should be reduced to 5 yuan/W, and will drop to 4 yuan/W next year, and then drop to 3 yuan/W in the following year. With the implementation of the 531 policy, the process has been significantly advanced. From the end of this year to the first half of next year, Tongwei will reduce the construction cost of the fishing light integrated power station to less than 4 yuan / W.
Chief Engineer, Institute of New Energy and Statistics, State Grid Energy Research Institute HUANG BIBIN
Huang Bibin said that from the perspective of operational practice, the development of distributed photovoltaics should focus on power balance problems and voltage control issues. The high-permeability distributed power supply brings significant challenges to the reliable economic operation of the distribution network. At present, there are no technical problems that are difficult to solve at the distribution network level. In the future, the State Grid Energy Research Institute will partition each 110 kV substation based on its bearing capacity, and use the installed capacity and short-circuit current as the basis for the differential management of the bearing capacity. According to the quantitative analysis of a large number of typical distribution network cases, each power supply area can be divided into recommended area, suitable construction area, control area and prohibited area by selecting typical values.
It is suggested that the grid carrying capacity should be included in the distributed power development plan in terms of planning and construction. For areas with large scale of distributed power development, please ask the provincial and local power companies to report to the local government, and the local government will release the key points. The carrying capacity of the area guides the rational layout of the distributed power supply.
In addition, in the nuclear preparation case: the government simplified the nuclear preparation requirements in the recommended area and the suitable construction area, and should control and suspend the nuclear preparation case for the control area and the prohibited area. In the process of grid connection access: for the recommended area and the suitable area, the acceptance can be optimized, the management process can be further simplified, and the relevant access audits are strictly controlled for the control area and the prohibited area, so as to guide the enterprises in areas with relatively small installed capacity. Do investment construction. Scheduling operation: According to the management and control division, determine different measurable and controllable requirements. For the recommended area and the suitable construction area, the current relatively low scheduling operation management requirements are adopted to achieve considerable or measurable, and for the control area and the prohibited area, according to national standards or industry standards, measurable and controllable.
Senior Vice President, SUNGROW Co., Ltd. ZHAO WEI
Zhao Wei believes that the future energy architecture needs to absorb renewable energy to the maximum extent, making energy utilization more efficient, clean and stable. It is the core goal of energy development. All the means based on this core goal are part of smart energy. He believes that the energy structure is irrational, the lack of flexibility of the grid restricts high-volume applications, the volatility of new energy generation, the high penetration rate restricts high-ratio applications, and the poor profitability of smart energy projects are the challenges currently facing smart energy.
In his view, the universal application of energy storage makes it possible to use renewable energy such as high-scale photovoltaics. Inverter technology and product acceleration iteration, photovoltaic power generation around LCOE reduction, continuous innovation, grid side around improving grid stability for innovation, Internet of Things, cloud computing, edge computing, big data, AI, etc. can help smart energy development.
Chief Technology Officer of Yingli Group SONG DENG YUAN
Dr. Song Dengyuan introduced the latest technologies and prospects of photovoltaic power generation. First, he shared the progress of the efficiency of crystalline silicon solar cells, including the laboratory and industrialization efficiency of single crystal and polycrystalline batteries. It can be seen that laboratory efficiency and industrialization efficiency are probably The difference is 3 to 5 percentage points. There are many factors to consider when the battery of the laboratory goes into production. From 2017 to 2018, China's solar cell's highest efficiency progress has recorded eight highest records. This year, five kinds of batteries have set a record for last year, indicating that China's photovoltaic industry has a strong innovation capability.
Song Dengyuan believes that the key to high-efficiency laboratory battery technology to become an industrialized technology lies in the three aspects of equipment, material and process complexity and silicon type, and introduces high-efficiency battery technologies such as PERC, PERT, HJT, TOPCon, and IBC. . Song Dengyuan said that there are some shortcomings in the domestic PV industry, mainly in terms of basic research and key equipment. How to make up the short board and growth items is the whole photovoltaic industry needs to think and work hard.
At the meeting, many representatives from industry departments, industry organizations, industry experts, and PV industry leaders discussed and analyzed a series of hot issues in the industry to better explore the development direction and path of China's future PV industry in the new stage and new situation.
On April 30, 2014, the MOFCOM issued Announcement No.25 of 2014 and Announcement No.26 of 2014, deciding to conduct anti-dumping and countervailing measures against imports of solar-grade polysilicon originating in the EU for two years.
On April 28, 2017, the MOFCOM issued Announcement No.22 of 2017 and Announcement No.23 of 2017, deciding to conduct anti-dumping and countervailing measures against imports of solar-grade polysilicon originating in the EU for 18 months from May 1, 2017.
On March 15, 2018, the MOFCOM issued the Announcement No.30 of 2018, announcing the upcoming expiry of the anti-dumping measures above on October 31, 2018, and that the natural person or legal person of or on behalf of the domestic industry, or organizations concerned, may in writing submit the application for final review to the MOFCOM within 60 days before the expiry date of such anti-dumping and countervailing measures.
Within the prescribed time limit, the solar-grade polysilicon industry did not make any application for final review and the MOFCOM decides not to initiate an investigation for the final review on its own. Therefore, since November 1, 2018, the anti-dumping and countervailing measures against imports of solar-grade polysilicon originating in the EU will be terminated.
According to the data of more than 900 meteorological stations across the country, the national average wind power density is 100W/m2, the total wind energy resources are about 3.226 billion kW, and the onshore wind energy reserves that can be developed and utilized are 253 million kW. The offshore wind energy reserves that can be developed and utilized in the offshore waters are 750 million kW, totaling about 1 billion kW. If the annual on-grid power of onshore wind power is 2000 hours per equivalent full load, 500 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity per year can be provided. The annual on-grid power of offshore wind power can be 1.8 trillion kilowatt-hours per year based on the equivalent full load of 2,500 hours. 2.3 trillion kWh of electricity.
Wind energy density and topography define four types of wind resource areas
Category IV wind resource area added and accumulated the most installed
In 2017, the newly installed capacity was mainly concentrated in the Class IV wind resource area. The newly installed capacity accounted for 79% of the total installed capacity of the year, which was 15% higher than the proportion of new installed capacity in 2016. The new category III wind resource area Compared with 2016, the installed capacity decreased by 12%; Class I wind resource area (6%), which was 3% lower than 2016, and Class II wind resource area (9%), which was the same as 2016 new installed capacity. . As of the end of 2017, the proportion of cumulative installed capacity of these four types of wind resource areas is 12% for Class I wind resources, 18% for Class II wind resources, and 19% for Class III wind resources. The proportion of Class IV wind resource areas is 51%.
Wind power construction shifts to IV resource areas
In order to implement the target requirements of the State Council's "Energy Development Strategic Action Plan (2014-2020)" on the realization of the price of wind power in 2020, to rationally guide new energy investment and promote the healthy and orderly development of photovoltaic power generation and wind power industry, Renewable Energy Law, in December 2016, the National Development and Reform Commission decided to adjust the new energy benchmark on-grid tariff policy. Compared with the current electricity price level, the I, II, and III districts have a large downward adjustment, and the wind power development has shifted to the IV resource zone. The trend is obvious.
The "Leader Plan" is about 5 Gs that can be connected to the grid this year. Poverty alleviation special, this time is relatively clear, answered the reporter asked, the total amount of poverty alleviation that has been approved is about 15GW, 10GW has been built, about 5GW this year, and the total goal is about 15GW, 2.8 million, In fact, it may not be able to fight. If the total amount is to solve the 2.8 million poor people, there will be about 18 GWs, and there may be a second batch. The 13th Five-Year Plan should have a second batch of poverty alleviation projects.
Therefore, now we are opening up a cheap market. In the past, we only had one market, that is, subsidized the market. Now we don’t want subsidies. How big is this market? Of course, this requires everyone to work together, can we have technological innovation to lower the price of electricity. In addition, the government and the power grid also need to solve some problems. We often say that "five mountains" and "five mountains" have no way to solve our photovoltaic industry. The "five mountains" are pressed down, not to mention the arrears of the sign, that " The four big mountains affect our electricity price by 20%. We now have an average price of 6 cents and 20%. If it is reasonable, if it can move "five mountains", it may be reduced to about 4 cents, and the impact is still quite large. In addition, the new policy measures, market-oriented transactions, green certificates, mandatory quotas, I think this is another window, I will explain in detail later.
The "Leader Plan" is better solved on the "several mountains" issue. The land does not need money, or only 1 yuan. If we can control the land cost per square meter per year is not more than 2 yuan, I think it is still Reasonable, now completely different, some even receive the highest 6 yuan / square meter, Shandong issued a text is received 5 yuan / square meter per year, and some are closed to play dogs, is built back after the completion of the collection However, this government is unlikely to be across the board, because the land is collectively owned and owned by the state, like the roofs are their own owners, so the government can not order you to drop to 2 yuan per square meter, so this may still Need the market to adjust, this mountain is not easy to cut, unless the "leaders plan" government across the board, I can give you down to 2 yuan, more than 1 yuan or even no money.
Grid access, this is mainly in the grid company, is it possible to implement according to national policies, to abandon the light limit, whether it is because of security issues, or because of the dispute of interests, the dispute of interests should be resolved, if it is security The problem is that it is reasonable to abandon the light. However, a leader of the Energy Bureau once wrote an article. He said that from the operational data, there is no support. The light-restriction is caused by the grid security and grid congestion. The power cut-off, there is no such data support, that is to say, the current power cut-off is not because of the threat to the power grid, resulting in the abandonment of light and electricity, but the interests of the dispute. If this is the case, the government should solve it and the power grid should solve it. The cost of financing and the arrears of subsidies are even more problems that should be solved. The cost of financing, of course, is not counted by the government. The bank will not listen to the government. He has the principle of running his own.
Therefore, the non-technical cost has caused more than 20% of the electricity price, so this should be able to solve it.
As for subsidy arrears, we all know that if we do not take any measures to exceed 300 billion by 2020, the cost of receiving the network is actually documented by the state. The document on reducing the burden of renewable energy is particularly clear, and the grid companies are responsible for investing in the construction of the network. However, most of the network-connected projects are now invested by developers. It is also said that if the grid enterprises are built by developers, the grid class should complete the repurchase by the end of 2018 according to the agreement or the investment assessed by the third party, but now I read a message, the repurchase rate is only 5%, basically still on the developer's head, including new projects, in addition to the front runners, the front runners are strictly in accordance with this document, are built by the power grid, but Ordinary power stations are not so lucky. If this problem is implemented according to the national documents, 9 cents per watt, nearly 1 yuan per watt, this part of the cost can be reduced if it can be reduced.
There is another one. Our grid companies are actually not easy. We can develop such a large market today and it is inseparable from grid support. However, there are questions to be written that need to be studied carefully. If every station must be equipped with reactive compensation, is it necessary to have a power forecast for each station? We have seen many PV power plants abroad, the United States, Germany, Spain, Japan, and people have not equipped these things, it should be with you. The booster station is equipped with these things, but it is not necessary to press it at each station. I don’t mean that it must be installed or must not be installed. At least it should be a stone of the mountain. made. In addition, the ratio of photovoltaic power plant integration, domestic requirements can not be over-loaded, more than the power of the inverter will be removed, this is even more unreasonable, the international is generally done in this way why China can not do so.
There are many problems with distribution. One is the problem of PV penetration. The problem of reverse power flow, I have not seen any convincing analysis. In addition, the secondary access is not 380 degrees of access, you have to go to millions. The investment to do the secondary system, there is no need, this is also the burden on our distributed developers, the developers are very confused, and the other is the "net electricity metering", our country is banned, since I do not subsidize Can you enjoy the "net electricity metering", I can not subsidize, but you want my power generation to be equal to the value of the grid retail electricity price? For example, my electricity price is about 7 cents. If I use the "net electricity metering", all of my power generation will enjoy a price of 7 cents. It is also cost-effective to not subsidize. Now our country is a two-way meter. The part of the reverse power transmission can only be more than 3 hairs of desulfurization electricity price, while the self-use part enjoys the retail electricity price, but the "net electricity metering" can make all photovoltaic powers enjoy the price of 7 cents, so this income is Greatly different. These problems can not be settled by the grid company according to the net electricity consumption. As long as the photovoltaic power generation is less than one year's electricity consumption, it is sure that your PV power station is enjoying the high electricity price. This is very simple, and there is no transaction. cost. In the United States, 42 states have a net electricity metering method that allows the use of “net electricity metering”, and many states in the United States do not have subsidies, which is to promote the development of photovoltaics according to this policy.
In Europe, except for Germany, other countries are allowed to use “net electricity metering”, including Japan, so why can't our country do it? Foreign countries are allowed, and our country does not allow it. In fact, the implementation of this policy is conducive to improving the income of photovoltaic developers, directly opening a "spontaneous use" of the parity market.
Technological innovation also needs government and grid support, why? The problem of tolerance ratio is better than that of international adoption after 2010, because it can greatly improve the income. In addition, for example, the original type of regional countries originally limited the equivalent utilization hours to 1500. In fact, this If you increase it by 20%, you can increase it to 1800. The annual power generation hours can be greatly improved. The cost of electricity can be immediately reduced, and very good technical innovations have been written into the IEC standard.
In fact, if the state allows or the grid allows us to overload, we must also increase the number of guaranteed acquisition hours, because the national default limit for light and light is based on the number of guaranteed hours, and the number of hours of guaranteed charges is now announced. One type of area is 1500, and the second type is about 1200. This should be improved. The first type of area should be raised to 1800, the second type of area is 1500, and the third type of area is 1200. This way, our technological innovation, if you are stuck in the still 1500, 1200 If you have 1000, I can't do it. I can send 1800. You can't let me send it, so this is complementary. First of all, you have to let go, let me expand. Second, you have to raise the ruler accordingly. It is only a minimum limit of 20%. In fact, like foreign countries, like the United States, this is 1.4:1.0. 40% of the front PV over-loading is common in the United States. I have also been to this power station. Like SMA, he even went to 1.6. The best economy is actually 1.6:10. Of course, different regions are different. At least foreign countries generally accept that 60% of them are super-loaded, that is, 10 megawatts of power station with 16 megawatts. The photovoltaic module, this is the most economical, the electricity price is the lowest, this is a report given by SMA.
If we have "five big mountains" and do not let go of the ratio is such a boundary condition, if we remove the "five mountains" to release the capacity than another set of boundary conditions, of course, this is the lowest.
Now let's take a look at the financial boundary conditions, which are done according to different boundary conditions.
Finally, I will see the conclusion. If you have "five mountains", don't let go of the ratio. If you achieve an internal rate of return of 10%, which is a reasonable proportion of income, a project, the actual reasonable price is in the three types of resources. It should be 7 cents, 8 cents or even 1 yuan respectively. Of course, some places have "a big mountain", and some places have "two big mountains". I am in extreme cases, "five big mountains" are pressed down. If we can get rid of the "five mountains" and the ratio can be released, in fact, our reasonable electricity price is also 10% internal rate of return, we can do 3 to 5 to 5 hair 5, so there is a large number The market can reach parity, at least on the electricity side.
I still follow the high comparison, according to the current level, the component is 1.9 yuan, if the system cost is 5 yuan, if we do the limit, our components can achieve 1.5 yuan / watt, the system can achieve 4 yuan per watt, we The reasonable price should be between 2 and 4 gross. At least one or two types of ordinary photovoltaic power plants, including all user-side electricity in the country, can be subsidized. We must be able to achieve such a level, that is, after the boundary conditions are fixed, this is a simple mathematics. problem. This is the power grid price data compiled by Wang Shujuan. First, look at the power generation side. The national desulphurization on-grid price is about 3 gross, 6 from the power side, the lowest electricity consumption for residents, and 10 kilovolts. The electricity price is 0.7 km/kWh. We take off the “five mountains”, the component price of 2 yuan, and the system cost of 5 yuan. We can also reach the parity on the electricity side. If we try to achieve the lowest price, all the electricity sides can achieve no subsidies, which is very obvious.
If the photovoltaic industry develops a cheap PV market, we need to do it in the PV industry. We will reduce the cost price to less than 2 yuan, and the system will drop below 5 yuan. We will use the hours to expand, so that an innovative means can be used. To achieve 1800, 1500, 1200, the state, government departments and the power grid also need to answer a few questions. Can the subsidy not be in arrears? Can grid access be implemented in accordance with national policies? Can the light rejection rate be controlled below 5%? Land cost, loan, is the financing cost can be further reduced, can not let go of the ratio, and increase the corresponding number of hours of protection, the minimum is only increased to 20%, in fact, we can still be higher, of course we will not say It is.
The first, second, third and sixth items are at least the unshirkable responsibility of the government and the power grid. This will open a window for us. Of course, there are some differentiated markets, like this is Professor Liu Zuming of Yunnan. He has done very successful. He has done a direct solution to the AC water pumping, because the PV modules are now very cheap, in the mountains. In many areas without electricity, they need irrigation water and need people and animals to drink water. In the past, it was very inconvenient to pull AC power, and the electricity bill was very expensive. Some of them now have AC power. Because the electricity bill is very expensive, the people are also applying. With photovoltaic water pumps, photovoltaic pumps have no cost after one investment, and he has done a lot of power. Originally, our photovoltaic water pump made several kilowatts, drinking water from humans and animals, and now really solved the irrigation water. This is very successful. Now that it has been done abroad, the Asian Development Bank will soon organize various developing countries in Yunnan to do training next month, opening up a large market, and now it is in short supply.
Like a solar street light. As we all know, the original "light up project", Beijing rural area, just 150,000 sets of Beijing, are now there, and there is no function at all. After one investment, after a few years, the battery is bad. After the three-year warranty period, it is different now. First, the reliability of LED is much improved. It reaches 50,000 hours. His light efficiency is three times higher than that of ordinary ones. So it turns out that a 45 watt low voltage. The headlights must be equipped with at least 100-150 watts of PV modules. Now only 15 watts of LEDs and 50 watts of PV modules are required. The brightness is the same, the whole cost is down, so it is said that with the technological innovation, like LEDs now include lithium batteries. Now, no lead-acid battery is needed. The original lead-acid battery is broken in 3-5 years. Now the lithium battery can reach 2000 times. The whole life can be extended to 8 years, and it is all intelligent. It can be monitored in real time on a mobile phone. More than ten thousand solar street lights, so I entered the stage of commercialization, more than 1,000 sets of lights, used for 8 years, economically completely PK off the street lights, and there is no electricity problem, the sun The street lights suddenly pushed to the commercial market, so this company is doing very well, and now it is doing a lot abroad.
Now in the country, the business volume after “5.31” has increased by 30%. With the advancement of technology, we did not think that this market will not be able to solve the problem. In a few years, the battery was bad, the government did not bear it, and it is different now. Now, more than 1,000 yuan can be ignited for 8 years, and the market of commercialization is quickly pushed forward. This is a differentiated market. We used to do this. We felt that this was no drama. After a few years, the battery was bad, but now people are really commercializing the market. They don’t want state subsidies at all. Like photovoltaic pumps, they don’t need it.
In addition, the new policy is very clear. The country has just issued and actively promoted the trading of the electrified market. The very obvious signal here is different from the original document. First, market-oriented transactions and clean energy quota system. Combined, and all power users bear the quota, this is not the same as the original, the original document is not written like this. There is another one. His entire pricing mechanism does not talk about subsidies. It is a basic electricity price + floating electricity price, which means that he may be a concept of selling at a price.
The second one, directly into the sale of the price. For example, I use 2000 kWh a year, and I have a quota of 200 kWh. The quota is that you have to buy wind power or photovoltaic power. What is the price? For example, the price is increased by 3 cents per kilowatt hour, and my 200-degree electricity is only increased by 60 yuan a year. This concept directly solves the problem of subsidies and solves the problem of consumption, so this gives The signal. So this gives me a lot of hope. The original can not, the original market-oriented trading pilot can not get rid of subsidies, subsidies are paid by the grid. Now the country is equal to the pilot that you reported. If you don't want to subsidize, you can't do it if you still need subsidies. Therefore, the new electricity price is not to talk about subsidies, it is directly to talk about the issue of selling at a price, so this will solve this problem and get rid of the entanglement of subsidies.
In addition, like this document, renewable energy power quotas draft, renewable energy power prices, give non-water renewable energy quotas, non-water is wind power, optoelectronics, this is allocated everywhere, you must follow The quota is implemented, but this document does not say that the subsidy is a problem. It only solves the problem of subsidy, no subsidy, and no subsidy. This is not acceptable. Therefore, we must follow the new policy. If the analysis is correct, it will not only solve the problem of consumption, but also force quotas.
The other one, selling at a price, can solve the subsidy problem, so I am still very much looking forward to this. Of course, I don’t know if it comes out later. And through the power trading center, he is a 5 million kilowatt user, you enter the power center transaction. 5 million kilowatts/year, I can bargain with others. The power trading center has actually been established in various provinces in China, so there is already such a condition for market-oriented transactions, so I am looking forward to this policy.
From the long-term goal of the country, this is the case. In 2035, this is a goal that the Energy Institute has given to the National Energy Administration. In 2035, it will achieve 1,000 watts per capita, which will be reversed. If 2035 is 1.5 billion kilowatts, it will be 1 billion in 2030. According to this, in fact, our average annual installed capacity is no less than 50G, and the average installed capacity of 2020-2025 is 50G, 2026 or more per year, and an average annual installed capacity of 100 million kilowatts by 2035. In the long run, the goal of China's energy transformation will definitely promote the development of photovoltaics, which means that the future is very bright.
Conclusion, the PV market that needs subsidies may be greatly limited, and the average annual price is about 30G. After the parity, there is no need for subsidies. The parity PV market needs the government and the power grid to solve the problems of the three mountains and solve the problem of the ratio of the ratio. If it can be solved well, 60% of the market may no longer need state subsidies. If this problem is solved well. In addition, the new policy, market-oriented transactions + renewable energy power quota + non-water renewable energy power quota + green certificate system + sales at a price, can open a large market, although subsidies, but through market competition to solve subsidies The problem, and there is a power quota system, can suddenly open a considerable policy market, as well as differentiated markets and so on.
On October 10, the National Energy Administration and the State Council Poverty Alleviation Office jointly issued the "Notice on Reporting Matters Related to the PV Poverty Alleviation Project Plan" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice").
The "Notice" requires that the provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Development and Reform Commission (Energy Bureau) and the Poverty Alleviation Office organize and report plans for the construction of photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects during the period of poverty alleviation in the province (autonomous regions and municipalities).
The "Notice" pointed out that it is necessary to accurately identify the targets of poverty alleviation. Photovoltaic poverty alleviation targets are poverty-stricken households that are listed in the poverty-stricken villages of the National Photovoltaic Poverty Alleviation Implementation Area, and preferentially support poor people in deep poverty areas and poor working ability.
The "Notice" requires strict implementation of the reporting conditions. The scope of implementation of the project, poverty alleviation targets, construction methods and scale, and construction funds shall be strictly managed in accordance with the “Measures for the Management of Photovoltaic Poverty Alleviation Power Stations”. In particular, photovoltaic poverty alleviation power stations shall be financed by local governments according to financial resources. Do not invest in shares.
The "Notice" emphasizes that the city (county) that has problems in the audit of PV poverty alleviation by the National Audit Office should be fully rectified before the deadline for submission of the plan to declare. It has been included in the catalogue of national subsidies for photovoltaic poverty alleviation, the projects that have been declared to be included in the stock of photovoltaic poverty alleviation, and the projects that have been included in the first batch of photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects in the “13th Five-Year Plan”, and cannot be declared again.
The provincial energy and poverty alleviation departments will jointly submit the provincial (regional and municipal) PV poverty alleviation project plan recommendations to the National Energy Administration and the State Council Poverty Alleviation Office before November 10;
In addition, the Notice also requires that the project plan declaration and release process be standardized. For the relevant power grid companies, the "Notice" pointed out that it is necessary to make a good connection between the power station and the network to ensure that the village-level poverty alleviation power station and the network connection project are completed and put into operation simultaneously. All provinces, autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government and Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps Development and Reform Commission (Energy Bureau), Poverty Alleviation Office:
In order to implement the "Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Winning the Fight against Poverty" and "Guiding Opinions of the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on Winning the Three Years of Fighting Against Poverty", we will promote photovoltaic poverty alleviation work in a solid and orderly manner. We will conscientiously organize and report plans for new PV poverty alleviation projects during the period of poverty alleviation in the province (autonomous regions and municipalities). The relevant matters are hereby notified as follows.
First, accurately identify the targets of poverty alleviation. Photovoltaic poverty alleviation targets are poverty-stricken households that are listed in the poverty-stricken villages of the National Photovoltaic Poverty Alleviation Implementation Area, and preferentially support poor people in deep poverty areas and poor working ability. The municipal (county) poverty alleviation department is responsible for the accurate identification of poor households, and the municipal (county) poverty alleviation department will hand over the photovoltaic poverty alleviation task and the list of poverty-stricken villages and poverty-stricken households to the same level of energy authorities.
Second, strictly implement the reporting conditions. The implementation scope of the project, poverty alleviation targets, construction methods and scale, and construction funds shall be strictly managed in accordance with the “Measures for the Management of Photovoltaic Poverty Alleviation Power Stations” (Guonengfa Xinneng  No. 29), especially the photovoltaic poverty alleviation power stations shall be According to the financial resources, it is possible to raise funds for construction, and no debt construction is required. Enterprises should not invest in shares; the power grid company must undertake to ensure that the village-level power station and the access grid project are completed and put into operation simultaneously, and guarantee full consumption. In addition, the city (county) that has problems in the audit of PV poverty alleviation by the National Audit Office should be fully rectified before the deadline for submission of the plan to declare. It has been included in the catalogue of national subsidies for photovoltaic poverty alleviation, the projects that have been declared to be included in the stock of photovoltaic poverty alleviation, and the projects that have been included in the first batch of photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects in the “13th Five-Year Plan”, and cannot be declared again.
Third, standardize the project plan declaration and release process. The specific process for the declaration and release of the PV Poverty Alleviation Project is as follows:
(1) The provincial poverty alleviation and energy authorities shall organize the implementation of the PV poverty alleviation implementation plan by the city (county) as the unit, and the implementation scope of the implementation plan shall be the photovoltaic poverty alleviation project to be newly built during the period of poverty alleviation;
(2) The provincial poverty alleviation and energy authorities shall review and summarize the city (county) declaration implementation plan, and propose the plan for the PV poverty alleviation project during the period of poverty alleviation in the province, including: the number and scale of the village-level power stations, corresponding to the help of the establishment of the card The number and list of poor households, the full contribution commitment issued by the county government, and the network connection and consumption opinions issued by the power grid enterprises. On this basis, the provincial energy and poverty alleviation authorities will jointly submit the provincial (regional and municipal) PV poverty alleviation project plan recommendations to the National Energy Administration and the State Council Poverty Alleviation Office before November 10;
(3) From November 10th to 20th, the State Council Poverty Alleviation Office and the National Energy Administration will organize relevant provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) to report project information in the National Photovoltaic Poverty Alleviation Information Management System, and cooperate with the State Grid Corporation and China Southern Power Grid Corporation based on information systems. All provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) report project information for review. The provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) will report the projects that have finally been approved by the state to the papers again (if there is no adjustment, they will not need to report again), and the National Energy Administration and the State Council Poverty Alleviation Office will issue relevant provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) to fight poverty. Photovoltaic poverty alleviation project plan.
Fourth, do a good job in connecting the power station. The relevant grid companies should be responsible for coordinating the planning of the relevant provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) for photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects, connecting village-level photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects and rural network upgrading and transformation plans, and doing well the grid facilities construction and technological transformation in line with the photovoltaic poverty alleviation projects to ensure The village-level poverty alleviation power station and the network connection project were completed and put into operation simultaneously, and the photovoltaic power alleviation project purchased electricity in full.
On October 9, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Notice on the Description of Matters Related to Photovoltaic Power Generation in 2018" (hereinafter referred to as the "Notice"), issued on May 31, "About 2018." The relevant matters in the implementation of the Notice on Matters Related to Photovoltaic Power Generation (Development and Reform Energy  No. 823) are further explained. The "Notice" clarifies that the legally compliant household natural person distributed photovoltaic power generation project has been filed, started construction before May 31 this year, and is put into operation before June 30 this year (inclusive).
The state recognizes the scope of scale management, and the benchmark on-grid tariff and power subsidy standards remain unchanged. For the household natural person distributed photovoltaic project that has not been connected to the grid, it is generally necessary to take 2-3 weeks from the application for grid connection to the actual grid connection, and clearly give the household PV a one-month buffer period. The household natural person distributed photovoltaic project that has been started before the announcement is included in the scale approved by the state. For the general photovoltaic power station project on the ground, the "Notice" stipulates that the ordinary photovoltaic power plant project that has been put into operation in the construction scale of 2017 and before (including the provincial-level area with unlimited scale) and put into operation before June 30 this year (inclusive) , the implementation of 2017 photovoltaic power station benchmark on-grid price. A project that is competitively configured and performs online access determined during competitive deployment.
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