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Rational view of parity online, the industry has not sprinted stage - 2018 China PV industry annual conference
author:admin viewed:564 time:2018-12-05

     On November 22nd, the “2018 China PV Industry Annual Conference and Smart Energy Innovation Forum” hosted by China Photovoltaic Industry Association was held in Hefei. The theme of the conference was “New Situation, New Action”, which aims to study the background of energy reform. The direction and path of sustainable innovation and development of the photovoltaic industry. The conference has carried out various topics on China's PV industry, PV prospects under the energy transformation, PV export situation in the context of Sino-US “trade” disputes, future PV industry development pattern, PV power generation technology, PV+ energy storage, and smart energy. discuss in depth.

Director of Trade Relief Investigation Bureau of the Ministry of Commerce  YU BEN LIN

     In the past ten years, China's photovoltaic industry has experienced a lot of ups and downs, but after so many hardships, we still see the rainbow. The industry has grown so strong. From 2000 to 2007, China's PV industry has become the world's number one, and its product output has grown rapidly. By 2011, it has encountered double-counter investigations in the EU, the US, India, and Australia, almost a global blockade. However, in the process of development and growth in the past decade, China's PV industry has succeeded in turning crisis into an opportunity by coping with trade frictions.

     At the same time, I also want to put forward a thought and a reminder. Thinking is what kind of model should the PV industry develop? Especially after the development of the industry, the previous extensive high-speed growth model is no longer applicable. How can the photovoltaic industry develop under various uncertain factors such as domestic and foreign countries? In addition, in recent years, China's trade friction with Europe and the United States has been relatively successful, and the market has also undergone a certain shift, and the European and American markets have gradually turned to developing emerging markets. Then I also want to remind PV companies to pay attention to trade frictions in the process of entering emerging markets, to achieve orderly exports, and to steadily expand overseas markets.

Deputy Director, Department of Electronic Information, Ministry of Industry and Information Technology  


    The photovoltaic industry is a sunrise industry based on the existing energy demand and the combination of semiconductor technology. After more than ten years of development, the photovoltaic industry has become one of the few strategies in China that can simultaneously participate in international competition and is expected to reach the international leading level. Sexual emerging industries. At present, China's photovoltaic industry is leading the world in manufacturing scale, the level of industrialization technology is continuously improving, the application market is growing rapidly, the industrial system is gradually improving, and it has a solid foundation for moving toward smart PV.

    China's photovoltaic industry is in a critical period of transformation and development. Photovoltaic enterprises should further increase research and development efforts, implement intelligent and refined management, improve production efficiency, improve development quality, reduce production costs, and accelerate the competitiveness of photovoltaic power generation. The power system reform process also requires PV companies to change the traditional development model of providing only products and electricity, and actively explore new technologies and business models such as energy Internet, energy storage, and distributed generation transactions.

    Since 2018, the Department of Electronic Information of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has carried out the following tasks: First, focus on implementing overall planning and promoting the upgrading of industrial intelligence; Second, strengthen industry management, standardize industrial development, and continue to organize and implement the normative conditions of the photovoltaic manufacturing industry; The independent innovation of enterprises will enhance the core competitiveness of the industry; the fourth is to release the basic system of standardization, continuously improve the industrial support, and implement the comprehensive standardization technical system of the photovoltaic industry; the fifth is to guide the development of the industrialized international market and promote the photovoltaic enterprises to go global.

    Next, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will focus on the following tasks: First, strengthen industry management and standardize industrial development order; Second, promote the photovoltaic industry to accelerate transformation and upgrading; Third, optimize the development environment of the photovoltaic industry; Fourth, strengthen international cooperation in photovoltaic enterprises.

Chairman of Hefei Municipal CPPCC      HAN BING

    Solar energy is the cleanest, safer and more reliable source of energy. The developing countries are taking the development and utilization of solar energy as the main content of the energy revolution. In recent years, Hefei City has actively responded to the national policy guidelines, seized the strategic development opportunities of the photovoltaic new energy industry, and adopted a number of measures. First, the optimization of the policy environment, the first in the country to launch a series of support policies, of which photovoltaic power subsidies on the basis of the national supplement to make up 0.25 yuan, even 15 years, the subsidy can be said to be relatively large; the second is the first in the country The photovoltaic poverty alleviation model, the current PV poverty alleviation model has moved from Hefei to the whole country.

    In 2017, the photovoltaic industry in Hefei achieved an output value of 42.5 billion yuan, which is in the forefront of the national cities. So far, the city has built and connected to the grid to generate more than 18,000 types of photovoltaic power generation systems, with an installed capacity of 2.2GW, ranking the forefront of the provincial capital cities. In the future, Hefei will continue to build the first city of China's photovoltaic industry, and continue to promote the development and transformation of the photovoltaic industry in the city, and contribute to the construction of ecological civilization.

Vice Chairman and Secretary General of China Photovoltaic Industry Association   WANG BOHUA

    Wang Bohua introduced that from January to October, domestic silicon wafer production was 77.8GW, battery production was 60.5GW, and module output was 63.7GW. The capacity utilization rate of large-volume enterprises remained above 70%, and many small-volume enterprises Capacity utilization has been below 50%. According to data released by the Energy Bureau, from January to October, China's new PV installed capacity is about 36GW, with a cumulative total of more than 116GW.

    Wang Bohua said that from January to October, the total export volume of silicon wafers, battery chips and modules in China increased by 14.6%, and the import of polysilicon was in a downward trend. The concentration of China's component product exports has continued to decrease, and the situation of new markets and blossoms has expanded. Last year, China’s largest component export market, India, accounted for 30.9% of total exports, accounting for only 15.9% this year.

     Wang Bohua is optimistic about the global prospects of the photovoltaic industry. He made a simple analysis of the future of the photovoltaic market. First, the industry should continue to have confidence in the domestic market. Secondly, the photovoltaic industry is a global manufacturing industry, based on the global market. Consider the problem; in the end, the photovoltaic industry still needs to innovate, to reduce costs, improve quality, and increase efficiency. Wang Bohua believes that the photovoltaic industry is still in the process of rapid cost reduction. According to his estimation, the cost may fall by 30% from 2018 to 2022.

Former Director of the Energy Research Institute of the National Development and Reform Commission  


    From the perspective of big energy, Han Wenke explained the development of the photovoltaic industry. He believes that in the context of the energy production and consumption revolution, combined with macro-policies such as supply-side structural reforms and the improvement of relevant industrial policies, the development of the photovoltaic industry will be further promoted. Recently, industrial policies have changed, and competitive policies have gradually risen. In the future development of the photovoltaic industry, the national energy authorities should find new paths under the influence of macroeconomic policies. How photovoltaics and wind power are combined with other energy forms is the industry. The question to think about now.

    According to Han Wenke, in the "2030" year and in achieving the goal of "energy revolution", photovoltaics will replace some of the nuclear power and become the first main force of clean energy, becoming an industry connecting the supply side and the consumption side.

Vice President of China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Mechanical and Electrical Products  WANG GUI QING

    Wang Guiqing believes that the Sino-US trade dispute affects the world economy, and the world economy directly and indirectly affects the photovoltaic industry. Beginning with the start of the trade war in August, the United States has conducted a series of systematic studies on China, which has comprehensively criticized the Chinese economy, including technology transfer, intellectual property rights, innovative legal policies, market access, and trade deficits.

     Wang Guiqing said that in the Sino-US trade war, the photovoltaic industry should do the following three aspects: practice internal strength, have strength in the industry; ensure market diversification; and make appropriate market layout. If you do these three things well, the crisis against others can be turned into an opportunity for yourself.

    Wang Guiqing said that in recent years, PV modules have been exported with high-efficiency components, and high-efficiency components above 315W accounted for more than 60% of total exports, and showed a growing trend. In his view, how to protect overseas markets is also a problem facing the industry. In the traditional markets of the United States, Europe, India and other countries, PV companies have entered into the market, and the export volume has risen very quickly. Then those countries have launched anti-dumping and countervailing measures against the Chinese PV industry, and then the companies have withdrawn. Wang Guiqing called on PV companies to respond to the early deployment of emerging markets. For example, Chile and other countries and more than 50 countries around the world have free trade zones. Enterprises can use the concept of free trade zones to avoid double-risk risks.

Dialogue forum

     In the dialogue between the leaders of the photovoltaic industry, the former State Council’s former director Shi Dingxi, Trina Solar Chairman Gao Jiyao, SUNGROW Group Chairman Cao Renxian, LONGi Chairman Chairman Zhong Baoshen, Zhengtai New Energy Chairman Qiu Zhanqi, Three Gorges New Energy Chairman Li Bin, Artes COO Zhang Guangchun, Vice President Hu Jinzhu of Tongwei Group and Yu Qiaoqi, Vice President of Jingko Solar, discussed issues such as national policy, affordable Internet access and corporate development.

    Shi Dingzhen believes that how to implement the Paris Agreement's commitment, structural adjustment, and private economy development policy is reflected in the "14th Five-Year Plan". However, there are also weak links. The main members of energy planners and policy makers are traditional fossil energy sources. Before making decisions, they need to fully investigate and research, and fully listen to the opinions of enterprises. In terms of foreign trade, the EU's cancellation of MIP is good news, but we must also consider the win-win cooperation between the two sides. We must avoid repeating the same mistakes and engage in low-cost dumping.

    Li Bin believes that the development of new energy in the country must have policy sustainability, so as to increase market confidence. He believes that in terms of policies, the industry still needs the government to provide support in reducing non-technical costs, which is also supporting the photovoltaic industry's parity online. a part of. At present, equipment manufacturers have a large price cut. As a power station investor, Li Bin appealed to the hope that the PV system can operate smoothly within the 25-year operating cycle. The premise of the equipment manufacturer's price reduction is not to reduce the product quality.

    Qiu Zhanxi said that in the next two or three years, there should be an era when subsidized projects and non-subsidized projects coexist. Subsidized projects should be kept at a certain scale, subsidies should be reduced, and unsubsidized projects should be developed in large numbers. From a business perspective, the government should be required to create a good policy environment for unsubsidized projects, such as approval priorities and financing incentives. Although the current 531 New Deal, Sino-US trade friction, economic downturn, etc., but the opportunity is still greater than the challenge, the photovoltaic industry has reached the outbreak period before the parity.

    In Gao Jifan's view, this year's PV industry has experienced another internal and external problem, but in the medium and long term, changes in external policies will not necessarily have an essential impact on the photovoltaic industry. He believes that the current scale of the photovoltaic industry is indeed increasing, but the rapid decline in the price of photovoltaic products, resulting in no increase in total sales. However, in the past decade, the annual investment of PV companies has been increasing, and the proportion of input and output in the industry is getting lower and lower. The past two decades have been a process in which the industry has reduced costs through technological innovation, policy support, and continuous investment in scale. However, the high-quality development model creates more value with less resources input, and the current development mode of the industry has not undergone qualitative changes. Gao Jifan said that in order to move toward more influential and higher quality development, in addition to continuing to reduce costs and increase efficiency and expand scale, it is more important to complete the transition from energy characteristics to feeling characteristics. Different, users are willing to pay for the experience, then PV can become an industrial form based on photovoltaics beyond photovoltaics.

     Cao Renxian believes that the company's own management and cultivation of internal strength is the key to survival. The core lies in having a correct understanding of the market, policies and its own perception. In the past, many top-ranking companies have fallen over nothing more than self-confidence. At the same time, we must actively scream and appeal. Although it is often useless, the appeal is still to be called. Ten times and twenty times will always have certain effects.

    Zhang Guangchun believes that for the industry, it is necessary to adhere to the development of technology, but the development of technology requires investment and time. The industry should have patience, including PERC, back passivation and other technologies, after a long time. Industrialization. Zhang Guangchun said that the photovoltaic industry started from a foreign market. Chinese PV companies cannot be confined to the Chinese market and must have a global positioning. The trade barriers of each country will exist for a long time. In the process of Chinese manufacturing going out, the bad habits of vicious competition in the industry must be changed.

    Zhong Baoshen believes that on the one hand, enterprises must have a correct understanding of the photovoltaic industry, that is, this is a bright industry. Although it has experienced various twists and turns, the scale is still growing, so we must firmly believe that photovoltaic is what humans need. A bright industry. On the other hand, it is how long a company can live and whether it can live well. First, technology and management innovation, photovoltaic is an emerging industry, technology is developing very fast, how can we keep up with the development trend that leads the technology, Longji concludes as "no Leading non-expansion, if there is a shortage of temporary supply in the market, and the technology and technology can not reach the leading level, once the market encounters the storm, it is difficult to recover the investment; second, don’t try to do everything, and it’s easy to sprint too early. To maintain financial stability in order to maintain sustainable development.

    Yu Qiaoqi said that because PV companies are highly dependent on policies, the ups and downs of the industry are closely related to policies. Under the current situation, the entire industry should work together to tide over the difficulties. After “531”, the sharp drop in the price of upstream components accelerated the parity of the Internet. From the auction results of the third batch of runners, the price of the fourth batch of runners tends to be cheaper. In her view, the photovoltaic industry wants to go well. The “last mile” before the parity Internet access is mainly at three points, subsidies, non-technical costs, and scale. Yu Qiaoqi said that a large number of stock projects are not included in the catalogue, and the delay in subsidies affects the cash flow of enterprises. Technology costs are already low, and non-technical costs depend on local government and grid support. A certain scale can support enterprises to improve their technical level. If there is a need to choose between subsidies and scales, PV companies will choose to reduce their subsidies to increase their scale.

    Hu Rongzhu said that Tongwei is cutting into the photovoltaic industry from the most difficult polysilicon. The policy dependence of the photovoltaic industry is very strong. For enterprises, they must first do their own well. Why does Tongwei have the bottom gas expansion or because of management? Only when the quality of the product is maintained, the cost is reduced continuously, and the market has the right to speak.

    In the photovoltaic industry expert forum, Zhao Yuwen, vice chairman of China Renewable Energy Society, Yu Zhenhua, chairman of Zhongguancun Energy Storage Alliance, Shen Hui, professor of Sun Yat-sen University, Wang Shijiang, deputy secretary general of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, and Liu Rui, general manager of Zhenheng Certified Photovoltaic Business Unit Chen Junying, an analyst of Jibang New Energy EnergyTrend, conducted in-depth discussions and sharing on issues such as subsidy dependence, photovoltaic + energy storage, trade barriers, household distributed standard system, and future efficient technology development.

Deputy Director, Renewable Energy Development Center, Energy Research Institute, National Development and Reform Commission     TAO YE

    In order to reduce the demand for the subsidy process, the focus of next year's work will be on the adjustment of electricity prices, the adjustment of large-scale project management, the Internet side parity project, the quota system, and the green card trading mechanism. The focus of the work in the early period of the "14th Five-Year Plan" will be in the promotion of unsubsidized projects and the improvement of the quota system.
    Tao Ye said that the difference between planning objectives and market expectations should be correctly understood. The planning objectives are not strongly constrained by the market. The planning objectives are guiding targets. From the actual results, the “13th Five-Year Plan” of PV must be adjusted.
    In the non-fossil energy proportion target, the total energy consumption in 2030 will be controlled within 6 billion tons of standard coal, and non-fossil energy accounts for about 20% of total energy consumption. According to the latest newly installed data, 35.78GW of new installed capacity was added in January-October, accounting for 42.5% of all new power capacity. In terms of subsidies, the current subsidy funding source is only 1.9 points/kWh of renewable energy tariffs. By 2017, the cumulative subsidy gap will reach 120 billion yuan. Under the existing price-added level, the cumulative subsidy gap will reach 4000 by 2021. About 100 million yuan. So how to solve it? Tao Ye believes that an appropriate increase in the additional level of electricity prices will effectively reduce the cumulative subsidy gap. Under the conditions of wind power and photovoltaics to achieve Internet side parity in 2021, it is expected to achieve the balance of payments in the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, and the accumulated subsidy funding gap is expected to pass. We will expand the scale of the “green card” transaction that is linked to the quota system.

    Regarding the issue of parity, Tao Ye believes that the price should be treated rationally, the subsidy problem will not be dissipated naturally, and the scale of new construction will not be “open”. The renewable energy source cannot compete with the traditional power value competition in the electricity market. After the power technology is flat and the stage goal of parity is achieved, macro policy support is still needed.
     Regarding the quota system, the goal is to solve the problem of consumption. The difference between the third edition and the second edition mainly includes the following aspects: the second edition proposes the minimum constraint indicator, and the third edition proposes that more than 10% of the constraint indicator is used as the incentive indicator, and the renewable energy consumption exceeding the quota component is not In the second edition, the compensation will be paid as the bottom policy. In the third edition, the credit market system of the power market is proposed, which is included in the bad credit record of the main body of the power market for joint punishment; the second edition is the green certificate transaction. In the third edition, market-oriented transactions were proposed, and the amount of quota excess was purchased from the market entity that exceeded the quota. The two parties independently determined the transfer price and voluntarily subscribed for the green certificate.

President of Tongwei's Photovoltaic Business Unit        CHEN XINGYU

    Chen Xingyu believes that the energy revolution is the consensus of the whole industry and the whole society. The energy consumption structure based on coal and oil is undoubtedly the main reason for the formation of smog. The energy revolution needs further deepening.
    Chen Xingyu said that the current energy consumption for the entire process of manufacturing photovoltaic power generation systems can be fully recovered six to nine months after the completion of the power station. Within three years, system costs can be reduced by 20% or even more than 30%. Tongwei has the development of dual main industries of clean energy and aquatic products. At present, Tongwei aquatic feed accounts for 20% of the national market. In the field of new energy, Tongwei is integrated from polysilicon to battery chips, components and downstream fishing lights. Yongxiang Polysilicon, Tongwei Solar, Tongwei New Energy-based enterprises have formed an industrial chain.
     Chen Xingyu introduced that Tongwei has set a strategy for 543 on the surface power station. By the end of 2018, all power stations in Tongwei should be reduced to 5 yuan/W, and will drop to 4 yuan/W next year, and then drop to 3 yuan/W in the following year. With the implementation of the 531 policy, the process has been significantly advanced. From the end of this year to the first half of next year, Tongwei will reduce the construction cost of the fishing light integrated power station to less than 4 yuan / W.

Chief Engineer, Institute of New Energy and Statistics, State Grid Energy Research Institute      HUANG BIBIN

    Huang Bibin said that from the perspective of operational practice, the development of distributed photovoltaics should focus on power balance problems and voltage control issues. The high-permeability distributed power supply brings significant challenges to the reliable economic operation of the distribution network. At present, there are no technical problems that are difficult to solve at the distribution network level. In the future, the State Grid Energy Research Institute will partition each 110 kV substation based on its bearing capacity, and use the installed capacity and short-circuit current as the basis for the differential management of the bearing capacity. According to the quantitative analysis of a large number of typical distribution network cases, each power supply area can be divided into recommended area, suitable construction area, control area and prohibited area by selecting typical values.
    It is suggested that the grid carrying capacity should be included in the distributed power development plan in terms of planning and construction. For areas with large scale of distributed power development, please ask the provincial and local power companies to report to the local government, and the local government will release the key points. The carrying capacity of the area guides the rational layout of the distributed power supply.
   In addition, in the nuclear preparation case: the government simplified the nuclear preparation requirements in the recommended area and the suitable construction area, and should control and suspend the nuclear preparation case for the control area and the prohibited area. In the process of grid connection access: for the recommended area and the suitable area, the acceptance can be optimized, the management process can be further simplified, and the relevant access audits are strictly controlled for the control area and the prohibited area, so as to guide the enterprises in areas with relatively small installed capacity. Do investment construction. Scheduling operation: According to the management and control division, determine different measurable and controllable requirements. For the recommended area and the suitable construction area, the current relatively low scheduling operation management requirements are adopted to achieve considerable or measurable, and for the control area and the prohibited area, according to national standards or industry standards, measurable and controllable.
Senior Vice President, SUNGROW Co., Ltd.        ZHAO WEI

    Zhao Wei believes that the future energy architecture needs to absorb renewable energy to the maximum extent, making energy utilization more efficient, clean and stable. It is the core goal of energy development. All the means based on this core goal are part of smart energy. He believes that the energy structure is irrational, the lack of flexibility of the grid restricts high-volume applications, the volatility of new energy generation, the high penetration rate restricts high-ratio applications, and the poor profitability of smart energy projects are the challenges currently facing smart energy.
    In his view, the universal application of energy storage makes it possible to use renewable energy such as high-scale photovoltaics. Inverter technology and product acceleration iteration, photovoltaic power generation around LCOE reduction, continuous innovation, grid side around improving grid stability for innovation, Internet of Things, cloud computing, edge computing, big data, AI, etc. can help smart energy development.

Chief Technology Officer of Yingli Group   SONG DENG YUAN

    Dr. Song Dengyuan introduced the latest technologies and prospects of photovoltaic power generation. First, he shared the progress of the efficiency of crystalline silicon solar cells, including the laboratory and industrialization efficiency of single crystal and polycrystalline batteries. It can be seen that laboratory efficiency and industrialization efficiency are probably The difference is 3 to 5 percentage points. There are many factors to consider when the battery of the laboratory goes into production. From 2017 to 2018, China's solar cell's highest efficiency progress has recorded eight highest records. This year, five kinds of batteries have set a record for last year, indicating that China's photovoltaic industry has a strong innovation capability.
    Song Dengyuan believes that the key to high-efficiency laboratory battery technology to become an industrialized technology lies in the three aspects of equipment, material and process complexity and silicon type, and introduces high-efficiency battery technologies such as PERC, PERT, HJT, TOPCon, and IBC. . Song Dengyuan said that there are some shortcomings in the domestic PV industry, mainly in terms of basic research and key equipment. How to make up the short board and growth items is the whole photovoltaic industry needs to think and work hard.
    At the meeting, many representatives from industry departments, industry organizations, industry experts, and PV industry leaders discussed and analyzed a series of hot issues in the industry to better explore the development direction and path of China's future PV industry in the new stage and new situation.

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